Trend 1: Demographic Shifts

Demographic Shifts Alter the Employment Landscape

What is happening?

Do you think the baby boomers who will be retiring en masse over the next few years will have an impact on the job and career opportunities that will become available over the next five to seven years?

By 2006, two people will be leaving their job for every one person joining the labour force. By 2008, most experts believe that in North America there will be a shortfall of more than 10 million employees. Based on a number of demographic trends, in both BC and Canada there is a declining labour force participation rate (defined as the proportion of the population aged 15 and over who are employed or actively looking for work). The factors behind this trend are fourfold:

The “demographic wedge”

Visit the BC Chamber of Commerce Critical Skills Task Force report Closing the Skills Gap to learn about projected skills shortages, survey reports and provincial initiatives.

Insert Figure5.1, page 9 http://www.humancapitalstrategies.ca/download/Closing_the_Skills_Gap.pdf

Insert “Components of Population Growth, Canada”
From “Economic Change and the Outlook for Employment in BC” at:
http://www.humancapitalstrategies.ca/download/Closing_the_Skills_Gap.pdf

1. viewpoint
   	Many economists, demographers, and career experts believe that retiring boomers will lead to increased work opportunities for younger workers, particularly as younger adults make up an increasingly smaller proportion of Canada's workforce. This optimism for younger workers has to be slightly tempered by the fact that many older Canadians are choosing to work beyond the age of 65. Why? Monica Belcourt (2004, p. 154), a human resources expert, states that “‘Freedom 55’is not unfolding as we expected. Employees are choosing to work longer to make up for increased outsourcing and downsizing and to make up for declining government provision of pensions and retirement benefits. Another factor is that the average life expectancy has increased, so people need to work longer in order to afford living expenses for both themselves and their parents.”

   It's common knowledge that the BC population and the Canadian population as a whole is getting older. In 1921, only five percent of Canadians were over 65 years of age. By 2000 almost 13 percent of Canadians were seniors. Human Resource Development Canada (HRDC) has estimated that by 2011, approximately 41 percent of the working population will be between the ages of 45 and 64, with many close to retirement. This is the age group known as the ‘baby boomers’.
2. There are fewer individuals in the 15-44 age group. In 2000, approximately 44 percent of BC's population was in the 15 to 44 age group. By 2015, this will slip to below 40 percent.
3. People under the age of 30 are spending more time in college and university. This means they are unavailable for full time employment. Students spend an average of 16 semesters to complete an undergraduate degree at SFU.
4. Lastly, unlike the 1970s and 1980s when women entered the labour force in very large numbers, this trend has slowed down. Hence it is not likely that an increasing percentage of women will counter the projected decline in men's labour force participation.
   (Source: HRDC and Industrial Relations Bulletin, Feb. 2002, Business Council of BC)

implications for me
	As we have seen, it is expected that the exit of baby boomers from the job market will open up job opportunities for younger workers over the next decade. As an example of the looming ‘staffing crunch’, 70 percent of Ontario's provincial government employees are baby boomers, while only five percent are under 30. Many more people will be retiring from the work force than joining it. PriceWaterhouseCoopers, a top consulting firm, is facing a similar scenario. PWC foresees a shortage of accountants. To deal with this, PWC is looking to revitalize its alumni program while actively recruiting newly-trained accountants to the company. So, this may be good news for you as you leave your formal education and move into a workforce that may be experiencing a shortage of qualified people.

Jock Finlayson, Executive Vice President of Policy from the Business Council of BC, shares the statistics in this pie chart. It appears that most job openings in BC are to replace retiring workers. Links to all publications and presentations are provided on the BCBC website. Within your own career, the following activity will provide insight into how and why demographic trends may affect your work pathway.

	activity: demographic trends and you
	The following two articles profile demographic trends and their implications for the future “Shaping Labor Market Trends: Demographic Change,” from the Making Career Sense of Labour Market Information website This is an excellent overview of how demographic change is affecting the world of work on a number of levels. In particular it offers detailed information on the interplay between the aging of the population and employment opportunities. “They Don't Retire Them, They Hire Them” by Joe Mullich, Workforce Management. Faced with demographic shifts and skills shortages, some organizations have decided to recruit and retain workers over 50. Experts say this new older workforce will make it necessary for companies to rethink their approach to everything from recruitment and training to benefits and providing new challenges. Now that you've read these two articles, what career possibilities come to mind? What ideas can you follow up on? How will demographic shifts in Canada impact on students' career opportunities?

portfolio: future trends & me
Demographic Shifts Using the downloadable form, consider the following: REFLECTION: What will be the impact of changing demographics on my career future? GOALS: How can I incorporate this knowledge into my future plan? ACTION ITEMS: What steps do I need to take to incorporate knowledge about changing demographics into my career planning?

comments & discussion: demographic trends
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